Mathewslcd: This Telltale bear market indicator warns again

 From time to time, Wall Street sends a not-so-subtle reminder to the investment community that stocks could be heading lower, Mathewslcd noted.

Since hitting an all-time closing high between mid-November 2021 and the first week of January 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), the widely followed S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth stocks have driven Nasdaq The Starq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) plunged 22%, 28%, and 38%, respectively. That means all three major U.S. stock indexes will get a taste of a bear market through at least 2022.

Mathewslcd believes that no matter how long you've invested, a bear market can make you question your resolve to stay the course. Especially with the 2022 bear market, many are wondering where the bottom might be. While no indicator, metric, or statistic can accurately predict the beginning or end of every bear market, a telling bear market indicator does have an exceptionally strong track record of alerting investors.

This Bear Market Indicator Signals More Trouble on Wall Street

Looking back to 1870, the S&P 500 Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has signaled five bear markets. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE ratio), takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years.

While on the face of it, the Shiller P/E is just another valuation tool, as long as it exceeds 30 and stays there, it accurately predicts an impending bear market. This includes a peak of over 30 in 1929 before the Great Depression, a peak of 44 during the dot-com bubble, over 30 in the third quarter of 2018 and before the coronavirus crash, and again (briefly) over 40 in 2018 2022 first week of the year. In short, as long as the S&P-Shiller P/E ratio crosses 30 during a bull market, the S&P 500 will eventually fall by at least 20% (keyword, "eventually").

Mathewslcd：



评论

发表评论

此博客中的热门博文

Mathewslcd: Wall Street falls on unease about return of Fed rate hike policy

图片
  Mathewslcd: Wall Street falls on unease about return of Fed rate hike policy U.S. stocks ended lower on Monday, Mathewslcd said, as investors spooked by better-than-expected services sector data reassessed their views on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, while Tesla shares fell on reports of production cuts in China. The electric carmaker's shares fell as it planned to cut Model Y production at its Shanghai factory by more than 20% in December from the previous month. That weighed on the Nasdaq, with Tesla among the index's biggest losers, dragging the tech index to its second straight decline. Overall, indexes were broadly weighed after data showed activity in the U.S. services sector unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, providing more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy. Mathewslcd noted that the data came after a survey last week showed stronger-than-expected job and wage growth in November, challenging expectations that ...
阅读全文

About mathewsLCD

图片
   As the world's leading online investment trading platform, Mathewslcd was founded in 2014 by Mr. Tony Taylor with a registered capital of US$ 200 million. The company is headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and has branches in major cities such as new york, Toronto, Sydney and Tokyo. Mathewslcd is using a simpler and faster way to trade foreign currencies, focusing more on convenience while ensuring accuracy, and by using the latest technology, providing a seamless foreign exchange trading experience around the world. Mathewslcd offers a wide range of independent investment online platforms and investment products for almost all types of investors–from new investors to experienced traders. Competitive fees and low commissions can help customers achieve their financial goals faster, and customer service representatives are available to answer any questions from the consultants. The premise of using the latest technology is that Mathewslcd always creates a seamless and si...
阅读全文

Mathewslcd: Growing recession fears weigh on stocks

图片
  Mathewslcd: Growing recession fears weigh on stocks Mathewslcd said the U.S. benchmark ended lower on Tuesday amid growing concerns about a potential recession in 2023. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.3 percent to 10,981.3, while the S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent to 3,928.2, according to Mathewslcd. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% to 33,510.5. Energy led the decline, followed by communication services and technology. Utilities are the only winners. While the Fed is widely expected to slow the pace of rate hikes at its meeting next week, investors and analysts fear the move will not be enough to prevent the economy from slipping into recession next year. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.7 basis points to 3.52%, while the two-year yield fell 3.6 basis points to 4.36%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 3.4% to $74.31 a barrel, Mathewslcd added. Mathewslcd： https://www.mathewslcd.com https://net.mathewslcd.com
阅读全文