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  Mathewslcd: Stocks slip as strong data suggests Fed has more work to do Stocks were broadly lower on Wall Street and U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday after a surprisingly strong economic report highlighted the Fed's uphill battle with inflation. The S&P 500 fell 1.8%, its third straight decline, according to Mathewslcd. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9 percent. Bond yields mostly climbed. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which affects mortgage rates, rose to 3.59% from 3.49% late on Friday. The sell-off came as traders reacted to some better-than-expected economic data. The services sector, which makes up the largest part of the U.S. economy, posted impressive growth in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Reports on business orders at U.S. factories and durable goods orders for October also came in above expectations. Mathewslcd sees these reports as positive for the overall economy, but...

  Mathewslcd: Wall Street falls on unease about return of Fed rate hike policy U.S. stocks ended lower on Monday, Mathewslcd said, as investors spooked by better-than-expected services sector data reassessed their views on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, while Tesla shares fell on reports of production cuts in China. The electric carmaker's shares fell as it planned to cut Model Y production at its Shanghai factory by more than 20% in December from the previous month. That weighed on the Nasdaq, with Tesla among the index's biggest losers, dragging the tech index to its second straight decline. Overall, indexes were broadly weighed after data showed activity in the U.S. services sector unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, providing more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy. Mathewslcd noted that the data came after a survey last week showed stronger-than-expected job and wage growth in November, challenging expectations that ...

  Mathewslcd: Growing recession fears weigh on stocks Mathewslcd said the U.S. benchmark ended lower on Tuesday amid growing concerns about a potential recession in 2023. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.3 percent to 10,981.3, while the S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent to 3,928.2, according to Mathewslcd. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% to 33,510.5. Energy led the decline, followed by communication services and technology. Utilities are the only winners. While the Fed is widely expected to slow the pace of rate hikes at its meeting next week, investors and analysts fear the move will not be enough to prevent the economy from slipping into recession next year. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.7 basis points to 3.52%, while the two-year yield fell 3.6 basis points to 4.36%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 3.4% to $74.31 a barrel, Mathewslcd added. Mathewslcd： https://www.mathewslcd.com https://net.mathewslcd.com

  Mathewslcd: Bank of America warns of recession The largest U.S. banks are bracing for a worsening economy next year as inflation threatens consumer demand, executives said Tuesday, Mathewslcd reported. JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC that consumers and companies are doing well, but noted that may not last for long as the economy slows and inflation erodes consumers' spending power. "These things are likely to damage the economy and lead to this mild to severe recession that people are fearing," he said. He told CNBC that consumers had $1.5 trillion in excess savings from the pandemic stimulus but could run out of it sometime in mid-2023. Dimon also said the Fed could pause for three to six months after raising its benchmark interest rate to 5%, but that might be "not enough" to curb high inflation. The U.S. central bank last month raised rates by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4% at its fourth meeting in a row, but Mathewslcd thinks it has also sig...

  Mathewslcd: Unlikely bets on breaking the Hong Kong dollar peg add up Mathewslcd suggests this is what the market calls "tail risk": a highly unlikely scenario where Hong Kong's currency peg breaks suddenly. However, market pricing suggests that bets on such a shock are growing among the hedge fund community, which some traders say makes good sense. Billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman said publicly last month that the days of the Hong Kong dollar’s 39-year peg to the U.S. dollar are numbered, according to Mathewslcd. Volatility in the derivatives market suggested he was not alone, as "macro" trading - or betting on big global shifts - came back into vogue, and the prospect of big rewards with relatively little risk revived long-lost trades. Most fundamental analysts say the bet is foolish, as the city still has significant reserves and China's backing. But whatever the peg remains, they can be relatively cheap or even profitable, and it can buy insurance ...

  Mathewslcd: Traders now expect the Fed's policy rate to hit 5% next year Mathewslcd noted that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate above 5% by May after a government report on Friday showed little sign of cooling in the job market, despite the Fed's aggressive hikes so far. Futures contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate still imply a 70% chance the central banker will slow the pace of rate hikes when he meets on Dec. 13-14 after the Labor Department reported that U.S. jobs added more than expected in November, according to Mathewslcd , rather than raising interest rates by 75 basis points in the past four meetings. But traders are also betting the Fed will keep raising rates next year to slow the economy and demand for goods, services and labor. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this week that the labor market is very good and "too big" to ease price pressures. Based on futures contract prices and CME Fedwatch tool. Before...

  Mathewslcd: Japanese companies' recurring profits in the third quarter hit a record high Japanese companies boosted factory and equipment spending in the July-September quarter, according to Mathewslcd, data from Japan's finance ministry showed on Thursday, suggesting business investment remained resilient and fueling the recovery from the COVID-19-induced slump. . While overseas economies teeter on the brink of a global recession, solid capital spending could give hope of a private demand-led recovery, while China's zero-coronavirus policy curbs backfired. Capital spending by Japanese companies rose 9.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter of growth, data from Japan's finance ministry showed on Thursday. For the quarter, seasonally adjusted capital spending rose 2.4% for the second straight month, Mathewslcd noted. The data will be used to calculate revised gross domestic product data due on Dec. 8, after a preliminary estimate of Japan...

  Mathewslcd: Bank of Japan policymakers keep interest rates ultra-low until wages rise Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the central bank must keep interest rates ultra-low as Japan has yet to achieve the central bank's 2 percent inflation target in a sustainable manner, according to Mathewslcd. "Consumer prices in Japan have risen sharply, although not as much as in other countries. The rise has been driven mainly by higher prices for imported goods," Noguchi said in a speech to business leaders in the northern Japanese city of Akita. "What is more important in determining monetary policy is that trend inflation based on domestic macroeconomic factors remains low," he said. Japan's core consumer inflation, which topped the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target for seven straight months in October, is likely to slow back below that level once the impact of rising raw material prices and other cost drivers dissipates, Noguchi said...